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The art and science of the possible

Author Archives: lnedelescu

Humanity’s cosmic connection: from physics to economics

03 Sunday Mar 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in complexity, science, society

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Economy, inspiring, Nature, philosophy, science, Society

supernova_3

First, there was the universe. And then came humans. We study the universe sometimes forgetting we are the universe. There are lots of pointers to our cosmic connections. I am not referring to the documentaries on National Geographic where Michio Kaku, the celebrity physicist, tells us that every atom in our body was forged in supernovae that exploded a long time ago. Rather, in this blog I will be exploring a more more fundamental connection, between the least understood laws of the universe we’ve so far uncovered and a basic social human activity, between quantum mechanics and economics.

Why even explore such connections? Because similarities across sciences may have profound philosophical implications. We have to remember that dividing the observed reality into various sciences is a human construct meant to make things easier to deal with for us. The universe was not set up that way. So, every opportunity for common insights across sciences should be taken seriously, as it might shed light into our very nature and purpose.

Quantum mechanics had profound philosophical implications since the moment its laws were discovered in the earlier 20th century. It basically implied that the universe is unpredictable, that there is a fundamental limit to what humans can determine. Until then, Newtonian physics promised determinism, since, if one could measure the motion of all atoms, one could even predict the future, which becomes but the sum of all motions. But quantum mechanics, still beyond the grasp of human logic, says that there is a yet unexplained connection between the observer and experiment. Somehow the observer cannot be separated from experiment, and so, past some microscopic scale, the very process of observation changes the experiment, so that we can never determine exactly the initial state of a given situation.

As interesting as the implications of quantum mechanics might be, the general consensus was the microscopic scales don’t apply in the macroscopic world of humans.

But in economics a similar principle proposing a link between observer and experiment has been proposed. A number of cyberneticicians in the 1970s challenged the classical economic theory proposing that markets tend to equilibrium. They instead proposed that classical economic theory is based on the observer being clearly separated from the experiment. But if the observer is also part of the economic “game”, there is a limit to what we can predict about future outcomes reminiscent of quantum mechanics. The observer being embedded in the experiment is deemed in cybernetic theory as “reflexivity”. It’s as if cause and effect are not sequential, but rather they affect each other simultaneously  Gives one a headache just thinking about it.

So the question then becomes, how could the micro and macro worlds share characteristics? What is the connection? Well, social systems are made of people. And people act according to a computing device called “the brain”. And the brain is made of neurons which transmit electrical signals, i.e. exchange electrons. And electrons are small enough to be influenced by quantum laws. If the brain has the characteristics of a quantum computing device, this might explain why human behavior in inherently unpredictable and why, systems that include many humans, are even less predictable. While this reality may really piss off statisticians, it is otherwise a good thing: it says that humans have free will, are creative beings that can design their own future. But those insisting on predictions and reading into coffee cups shouldn’t get completely depressed. There is a way to predict the future: design it! 🙂

Counter-intuitive management tips: excessive transparency can lead to anarchy

02 Saturday Mar 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in management, Organizational Development

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

business, Leadership, Organizational Development

Image

The brain is a problem solving device. It is in a constant pattern search, even when there are no patterns to be found. This reality has a heritage in survival anthropology: the fight or flee decision had to be computed even with incomplete information. Waiting for all information to be available could be fatal (by the time one of our ancestors would pause to carefully analyze whether a moving bush meant there was a tiger behind it would have been too late). And so the brain, if it has to, will make up fictitious information to fit a pattern.

But this ability presents an inherent risk: we all have the potential to reach incorrect conclusions by forcing the wrong pattern to a situation we don’t understand. The leap from conclusion to strong opinion is effortless, as is attaching emotional value to a certain opinion. And with strong opinions comes the potential for questioning authority. Want proof? Consider how often you hear the conspiracy theory. What is the conspiracy theory if not a pattern that provides a simple way out for complex situations which are beyond the ability of simple comprehension?

So what does this have to do with management, transparency and anarchy? Well transparency is seen as a key ingredient of enlightened modern leadership. But consider this; the leader has an additional ability for perspective, which is why he or she is the leader in the first place. Call it a more powerful pattern fitting ability. And so, if the leader shared all the information he is exposed to with his subordinates in an effort to build consensus and rally the team around a purpose, the opposite may happen. That is because, given access to the same information the team is likely to fit simpler patterns to a given situation. And regarded from a simpler perspective, the leader’s actions won’t make sense. Questioning the leader is only a step away, and anarchy is always close by. Consensus may indeed be reached, against the leader’s authority.

And so, the solution? Give people an inspiring vision and share with them enough so they can do their jobs effectively in support of the vision.

The insights presented have to be of course tailored to the situation at hand. Office situations are seldom heated enough to qualify for the “anarchy” appellation. Also, in organizations where politics trumps competence, leaders are often less competent in perspective than their subordinates. In other words an incompetent leader may give the team good reason to question his or her decisions.

Is human psychology keeping up with our technological times?

18 Monday Feb 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in human capital, Organizational Development, society, technology

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Capitalism, Consumerism, Innovation, Society, Technology

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We live in a world with instant access to vast amounts of information, and to each other. Information used to be held by a privileged few. Now it’s available to the masses at large. And so a number of information age visionaries are predicting the end of the world as we know it, and the beginning of a new and enlightened world. Michael Saylor for example predicts in his book “The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything” that information technology, especially when coupled with mobile devices that provide continuous instant access, will revolutionize the world. I am inclined to say “not so fast” to these claims.

Here’s a key reason. Human psychology is important in helping us disseminate between the important and the trivial: it is a remnant from the fight or flee instinct that kept our stone age ancestors alive in the face of deadly danger. Our beliefs bias our judgement. And our behavior has been conditioned for too long to respect power, prestige and authority. We are conditioned to trust persons in positions of authority. We are conditioned to follow mostly what successful people say or do. We are conditioned to flock around role models ever since the tribal dawn of our social civilization. The king is dead, long live the thought leader!

So in a competition with the Harvard Business Review’s (HBR) blog, my  blog stands no chance, even if it may contain comparable wisdom. The entire promise of the information age revolutionizing the world rests on a process of democratization of the right to access and more importantly produce knowledge content. Thomas Friedman, author of “The World is Flat”, mirrors this democratic move away from established institutions and to the individual. He differentiates between the current Globalization 3.0 (individual as main protagonist) and and previous Globalization 1.0 (countries and governments were the main protagonists) and Globalization 2.0 (multinational companies led the way in driving global integration). The information age can be a democratic platform for a really smart individual to compete asymmetrically with established authority, say HBR, on equal footing. And technologically speaking, this is indeed possible.

But technology is only as useful as we make it to be, and our psychology may not have been keeping up with the times. For example, we are not yet blind to prestige.  Nor has our wisdom increased to the degree that we can discern value outside of brands. So even though a wealth of wisdom is available to us from a myriad of sources that are competing asymmetrically with established players for our attention span, we continue to flock around the HBRs of the world like ancient Greeks flocked around oracles. Every once in a while something goes “viral”, but the established players have nothing to worry about: it is usually the picture of the morning cereal that resembles Hillary Clinton that qualifies for exponential popularity. So what will truly revolutionize the world in my opinion is getting away from the sheep mentality so we can take full advantage of knowledge proliferation.

So where does that live me and you dear reader? Well, in order for me to gain access to you, or for you find my thinking, we likely will still have to go through an HBR-like middle-man. Even though technology has leveled or “flattened” the playing field as Friedman might say, psychology still provides job security for the middle-man.

A few thoughts on humanity’s future

18 Monday Feb 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in future, philosophy, society

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Capitalism, Consumerism, creativity, democracy, Economy, future, human, Nature, philosophy, politics, Society

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“Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world” is a well known quote of Albert Einstein. The insights one can derive from Einstein’s wisdom are powerful enough to shed light into humanity’s future.

But before jumping to the future, let’s take a step back and attempt to frame, in general terms, humanity’s current state. The multiparty democratic construct supported by a free market economy was challenged in the last hundred years by at least two competing totalitarian ideologies and thankfully, it has been reaffirmed as the best model for human organization we know. So Winston Churchill was probably right when he declared in 1947 that “democracy is the worst form of government except for all those others that have been tried”. Diversity and competition, two mechanisms that served the natural world so well, appear to be the most viable means by which social systems can also evolve. But social systems are different than natural systems. Besides diversity and competition, social systems also include compassion. And so, the modern democratic construct is itself polarized around two dominant ideologies, which are more aligned with either compassion or competition. So far so good. Now let’s take a closer look at the competitive mechanism.

An opportunity usually arises when a competitive advantage is created. And a competitive advantage can itself come in two flavors. First, it can come from exploiting a physical or knowledge differential (I have access to a physical or knowledge resource that you need). But physical resources are limited, and, if we believe Einstein, so is knowledge. So, as long as it competes primarily in the physical and knowledge domains, humanity is playing a zero sum game. Enter the Internet age with all the related technologies and barriers to physical and knowledge resources are rapidly dissolving. That means that competitive advantages based on limited resources will become increasingly harder to exploit and defend. Which brings me to the second flavor of competitive advantages, those derived from an unlimited resource: creativity.

Creativity is one of the most unique, and arguably most beautiful facets of the human condition. Its sources are curiosity and passion, human characteristics which are hard to incentivize. Material compensation and reward will not necessarily increase curiosity or passion. Curiosity can be instilled and nurtured, but not bought or coerced.

And so, in my opinion, humanity’s future is predicated on a competitive construct based on an unlimited resource: creativity. This is the next step beyond the so called “knowledge economy”. This type of competitive construct is also in alignment with the best that human nature has to offer; curiosity, passion, dedication, are all positivist sentiments in alignment with compassion, trust and respect. This evolution does present significant challenges to the current bi-polar democratic construct that poises compassion against competition. Consumerism, a key component of the economic engine on which the current democratic construct’s viability depends, is primarily based on limited resources; it will also have to evolve to where humanity becomes a primary consumer of ideas, truth and beauty.

The buzzword culture or how our confusion remains constant relative to progress

17 Sunday Feb 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in complexity, society, technology

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culture, problem solving, Society, Technology

buzzwords

Recently a Washington Post article explored the proliferation of obfuscatory language in our culture (see http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-02-06/lifestyle/37026527_1_initiatives-internet-web-site). An excerpt follows below:

“Before the Internet, obfuscatory language was mostly limited to the small world of the interoffice memo, where everyone conspired to be as vague and process-driven as possible — promising nothing concrete while sounding businesslike. Today, however, terms such as “optimize,” “prioritize,” “initiative,” “parameter,” “implement” and “effectuate” have become common parlance on the Web, used unabashedly in endlessly intriguing combinations. There are hundreds of instances of “prioritize the implementation of,” “implement the prioritization of,” “effectuate the implementation of,” etc. The expression “implementation of prioritized initiatives” alone appears on the Internet 2,100 times, more often than some of Pablo Neruda’s lesser-known love poems.”

I would single out as the biggest culprits in promoting useless jargon the big consulting companies and business schools. The big consulting houses sell in theory the same services but try to contrast and compare their offerings and you can get easily lost in a myriad of catch-phrases.

Alongside the business Illuminati, the IT revolution also resulted in an endless list of buzzwords to describe what is essentially “process efficiency”. It’s really funny when IT is sold as a capability to drive strategy, and in general to support or even replace highly creative activities that only humans can perform.

Which brings me to my law of the constancy of the human predicament: as more technology and know-how becomes available, we manage to somehow stay ahead of the simplicity curve so our confusion remains constant relative to progress. And that means there will always be prophets and oracles, i.e. consultants in modern day parlance, as a natural extension of our emotional self.

Everything has changed and nothing’s changed.

So if we were to eliminate all the buzzwords that the consulting and IT industries continue to produce, what would be left? I would venture to say: “problem solving common sense”. As long as there are humans, there will always be problems, and common sense will always be in short supply. Which explains why buzzwords will also always be around: to compensate for the lack of common sense, for which the demand is and will remain bigger than the supply.

How to approach wicked, ill defined problems

17 Sunday Feb 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in complexity, problem solving

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causality, complexity, creative thinking, critical thinking, models, problem solving, relationships

I have been dealing with ill defined problems for quite some time.  In this post, I will try to capture the essence of my approach to wicked problems in a five step process.

1. ELEMENTS – THE BUILDING BLOCKS: mentally walk through or discuss scenarios associated with the problem and note key elements that pertain to the problem space as they emerge. At this point, elements can be loosely defined: it is better to have a larger list of elements that are vaguely defined than a smaller list of clearly defined elements.

2. LOGICAL CLARITY: conceptually strengthen the problem’s elements so as to reduce logical ambiguity. Explore and resolve overlaps, hierarchy. Categorize as much as possible. Reduce the original list of elements to the smallest possible set.

3. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS: walk through problem scenarios again, this time exploring the causal relationships between elements. This represents the “static” structural characterization of the problem.

4. MODEL: architect a model to capture the problem’s dynamics (the main difference between a static and dynamic characterization of the problem is the time dimension that exposes the evolution of the problem’s elements and their relationships). Validate the model by exercising a few “what-ifs” derived from the original scenarios. Based on the type of model that fits, categorize the problem type if possible.

5. EXPLORE: apply initial questions pertaining to the problem to the model and explore non-obvious insights. Exploring implications should increase the understanding of the problem.

In summary, the approach to wicked problem solving is: ELEMENTS – RELATIONSHIPS – DYNAMICS.  The more complex the problem, the more sophisticated the model, and more iterations likely required.

A key trick is that the process may not be followed sequentially; that is, one could jump between the various steps as necessary (for example, while working on the model in step #4, one may need to jump back to step #2 to additionally clarify a particular element, or to step #3 to re-evaluate a particular relationship).

Finally, the entire process requires a diversity of mental skills: creative thinking for scenario walk-through; critical thinking for logical strengthening; design thinking for model architecture.

Christensen’s Category Dilemma

07 Thursday Feb 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in innovation, taxonomy

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Ackoff, Capitalism, capitalist, Christensen, dilemma, disruptive, Drucker, effectiveness, future, Innovation

Image

“The Innovator’s Dilemma” catapulted Clayton Christensen to the world’s top echelon of innovation experts. He has been called for example the architect of and the world’s foremost authority on disruptive innovation. In the book that became his claim to fame he was first to describe the mechanisms that are behind disruptive innovation, the type of innovation that entranced players never see coming as they are unseated from their dominant market positions by new entrants. Christensen explained how the business world’s Davids can beat their Golliahs.

More recently Christensen upgraded his innovation insights to address a much loftier goal: the future of capitalism. To ensure continuity with his earlier work, he has framed this new-found and larger scope interest with an appropriate catch-phrase: “The Capitalist Dilemma”. In short he proposes that there are different flavors of innovation and that not all innovation creates jobs; in fact innovation can destroy jobs and thus make capitalism unsustainable.

Christensen proposes three innovation categories: empowering, sustaining, and efficiency. A short definition of these and their relationship to job creation and destruction follows (source: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/21/business/opinion-clayton-christensen):

“Empowering” innovations transform complicated, costly products that previously had been available only to a few people, into simpler, cheaper products available to many. Empowering innovations create jobs for people who build, distribute, sell and service these products.

“Sustaining” innovations replace old products with new. They have a zero-sum effect on jobs and capital.

“Efficiency” innovations reduce the cost of making and distributing existing products and services. Efficiency innovations almost always reduce the net number of jobs in an industry, allow the same amount of work (or more) to get done using fewer people. 

Since the world’s elite are interested in both innovation and the future of capitalism, Christensen was one of the special guests at Davos, where he was asked to clarify his ideas on the fate of capitalism. While non-trivial to understand, his thesis is nonetheless simple to state: there are reasons to believe the world is putting too much emphasis on efficiency innovation, leaving capitalism at risk. Because of an erroneous finance doctrine, as more capital is freed by efficiency innovations, it is put right back into more efficiency innovations, compounding the job elimination effect.

More interestingly however, he started his argument with the need to define the right “categories” for any problem one might tackle, in this case innovation. He said that it took him a long time to arrive at the three innovation categories that finally fit the model for sustainable capitalism.

Now here’s my problem with Christensen categories, which I’ve appropriately termed “Christensen’s Category Dilemma”. But firstly, let me say that in general I absolutely agree with him that a prerequisite to an effective solution is framing the problem rightly, which in many cases means categorizing the problem’s constituent elements correctly. Ambiguity begets ambiguity. But the issue is that he is not acknowledging his predecessor and contemporary thinkers that have already defined similar categories 20-30-40 years ago. To his merit, Christensen applies existing categories to new contexts, resulting in novel insights. And he does so based on pure observation with apparently little a-priory knowledge of the existing related categories. This further reinforces the existing categories. And that in itself – a reconfirmation of existing categories based on observations in new contexts – is a powerful insight providing continuity of thought. And so, Christensen’s “efficiency” innovation category belongs for example to Peter Drucker’s more general “doing things right” category, and “empowering” innovation belongs to “doing the right things” respectively. Efficiency innovation is also traceable to Roger Martin’s “reliability” category, and empowering innovation to Martin’s “validity” category respectively. And the list can continue. Just to be clear, I am not suggesting plagiarism by any means. While Christensen’s categories can be traced to existing thinking, he is applying these to new phenomena resulting in new and unique insights. I am merely proposing that without the tractability to related existing thinking we those following his thinking are poorer when it comes to the larger context.

So the “category dilemma” is this: with fame and glory appears to come a mandate which carries a huge responsibility: that of framing knowledge, of raising the knowledge scaffolding on which others can build. Since success can have a self-reinforcing effect, gurus can find themselves on a pedestal that is largely beyond peer review and they often have the power to define their own categories. With that power also comes the responsibility to connect new knowledge to existing knowledge. That is because naming an existing category by a different name prevents access to potentially very useful insights already proven and tested in the past. In Professor John Gero’s words, “Ontologies provide a domain with a structure for the knowledge in that domain. Domains without ontologies are constantly inventing new terms for existing knowledge and find it difficult to develop foundations on which others can build.” And so, until Christensen and others of his statute acknowledge this implicit responsibility, the “category dilemma” will live on, and the world will make slower progress than it otherwise should.

The reader may have noticed that I did not debate or critique Christensen’s thesis; that is because I wholeheartedly agree with it. I can do so because I can relate Christensen’s thinking to principles that have been proven time and again, which can be traced to evolutionism, complexity, design, and systems thinking. So to me, Christensen’s thesis comes as a confirmation rather than a revelation. But Christensen has a responsibility to not assume that his audience at large can do the same. It’s not a matter of the facts, it’s a matter of the principles.

The “you’re all a bunch of idiots” paradox

23 Wednesday Jan 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in business, learning, paradox

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Tags

paradox, TED

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We live in a brand society. Build yourself a big enough personal brand, and you get away with crazy things. Be unknown, you are likely to offend even if you didn’t intend.

Let’s exemplify the paradox: gurus are often invited to enlighten an audience. Corporations for example send their up and coming executives to listen to innovation gurus. Sometimes the innovation guru points out how wrong they are doing everything. The message can be paraphrased as “you’re all a bunch of idiots”. The result? Wild applause and appreciation. How fresh the perspective! How insightful and thought provoking! The seminar is deemed as mind-altering and profound.

But as one of the biggest thinkers of all time said, “we don’t recognize that teaching is a major obstruction to learning” (Russell Ackoff). That is because learning cannot be acquired by listening, it has to be experienced. So listening to a guru’s past experiences will produce little learning. You will learn little from my mistakes.

And so, following one of these thought provoking sessions, each of the parties goes happily its own way, with the state of things pretty much unchanged: the guru is paid and his or her brand confirmed, while the audience has checked the corporate or personal check-box for “learning”.

Let’s keep applauding, it feels great, doesn’t it? Given the right setting, being called an idiot can be liberating. Not to mention that cozy group feeling of “I’m not alone in my ignorance”!

Davos, innovation and the future of capitalism

23 Wednesday Jan 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in capitalism, democracy, future, innovation, society, taxonomy

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Ackoff, Capitalism, Christensen, Davos, Drucker, effectiveness, Innovation, management, Martin, Responsibility, Thought Leader

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Many of the sessions at Davos 2013 contain “innovation” in the title. Two of the top names in management and innovation are present as well: Clayton Christensen and Roger Martin. Unfortunately, the fact they speak with separate voices about the same underlying phenomena is not helping their cause, which holds more potential for true transformation of the world economy than many of the purely economic insights of the typical Davos crowd:

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/21/business/opinion-clayton-christensen/index.html

http://www.rogerlmartin.com/wp-content/themes/rm2009/pdfs/strategy_issue23_thinkingbydesign.pdf

Peter Drucker and Russell Ackoff have 20-30 years ago explained the fundamentals behind the phenomena observed by both Christensen and Martin: in essence effectiveness trumps efficiency. Christensen and Martin thus have a great responsibility, that of acknowledging each other so as to not fragment the legacy of Drucker and Ackoff’s schools of thought; in today’s environment the urgency is such that we can’t afford recreating the Tower of Babel experiment. But even if they and others like them (Dave Snowden, David Hurst, Fredmund Malik, etc.) were to speak with one voice, the real decision makers at Davos will have little clue as to what these two guys are talking about. That is because one can only fully absorb something one can relate to personal experience. Decision makers cannot be taught, even if they had the humility to listen (relevant Ackoff quote: “We don’t recognize that teaching is a major obstruction to learning […] Who in the classroom learns the most…. the teacher. See the classroom is upside down.”).

How bureaucracies continue to grow or the second law of “organizational” thermodynamics

20 Thursday Dec 2012

Posted by lnedelescu in capitalism, democracy, future, human capital, management, Organizational Development, problem solving, society

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Behavior, bureaucracy, management, Organizational Development, thermodynamics

Is there a reason bureaucracies seem to always expand? Is there a reason why a committee that was set up to resolve a problem often time gets of life of its own and outlives the problem? Is there an organizational equivalent to the second law of thermodynamics in physics that says that the entropy or disorder of a system always tends to grow? What are the equivalent mechanics that fuel bureaucratic expansion?

I present in this blog entry a generic bureaucratic growth scenario that is inspired by real experiences. The scenario is organized in a number of steps and most steps are conceptually reinforced by the words of a few individuals who are held in high regard by society.

(Step 1) The bureaucracy’s leadership defines a grand and worthy-sounding vision that needs to be pursued.

Because the leaders don’t have a complete and clear understanding of all the implications of the vision they propose, there is usually some degree of ambiguity associated with an otherwise worthy-sounding pursuit. A sound vision requires a deep understanding of the context. And a prerequisite to understanding in complicated domains requires clear organization of the complete knowledge in that domain, or an ontology. But there are many bureaucracies which operate without an awareness of the total knowledge they are supposed to possess and manage. And there are many leaders within those bureaucracies who do not possess the understanding required. An applicable quote from Profession John Gero is: “ontologies provide a domain with a structure for the knowledge in that domain. Domains without ontologies are constantly inventing new terms for existing knowledge and find it difficult to develop foundations on which others can build.”

Nevertheless, even with an ambiguous or incomplete vision…

(Step 2) Planning the work to achieve the vision begins.

Because the true implications of the ambiguity and incompleteness of the vision are not thought-through, there is usually a disconnect between the vision and the time and budget allotted. This increases the pressure on executing the vision, decreasing the opportunity to question the context, the validity of the vision. Because the subordinates are judged by checking off the vision or goal, they concentrate on just that. In a strive for efficiency (get the product out, meet the deadline so we can check off the box) effectiveness (i.e. context) becomes skewed. An applicable quote from Peter Drucker is “efficiency is a matter of doing things right; effectiveness is a matter of doing the right things.” But doing the “right things” takes enough up-front thinking, and it also takes pushing back on a vision or goal that doesn’t make sense.

But it’s already too late for that…

(Step 3) The initiative/project/product gets a life of its own.

This happens because it starts being tracked in the operational systems of the bureaucracy. These are however by definition not designed to be sensitive to context. That is because context takes thinking, and it cannot be easily measured with simple metrics: there is no such thing as a kilogram of context. The chance for someone noticing a fault with the initial vision diminishes at this point exponentially. That is because these context-blind operational systems have a direct impact on the employee’s performance, and they don’t measure context and validity. So arguing that the work doesn’t make sense, can only get one in trouble, since “doesn’t make sense” is not something that operational systems track.

And so, Drucker’s “doing the right things” turns decisively into “doing things right”, or else!

(Step 4): The vision cannot be wrong!

The initiative/project/product is clearly out of tune with the initial vision. The results are just not conclusive and the output isn’t useful. But it has since acquired a life of its own, and even if its ineffectiveness is obvious, no one dares to take the blame for fear of punishment. The disconnect eventually becomes apparent to the leadership, but even the executives who initiated the vision don’t have the political courage or power to declare the vision erroneous.  Doing so would mean taking the blame for X millions/billions spent in vain. And so, attempts are made to fix the initiative/project/product from within rather than scrapping it altogether, acknowledging the financial loss, and re-examining the initial premises. The same thinking and methods that created the problem are used to attempt to correct it, which is a futile exercise. Albert Einstein has a powerful insight for this type of situation: “we can’t solve problems with the same type of thinking that was used to create them”.

(Step 5): Fear and stubbornness are good companions.

Stubbornly refusing to acknowledge blame and scrap the project, the organization continues to try to do the wrong thing righter. But Russell Ackoff rightly cautions against this approach:  “most large social systems are pursuing objectives other than the ones they proclaim, and the ones they pursue are wrong. They try to do the wrong thing righter, and this makes what they do wronger. It is much better to do the right thing wrong than the wrong thing right, because when errors are corrected, it makes doing the wrong thing wronger but the right thing righter”.

(Step 6): Outside intervention!

An outside intervention is eventually necessary, and this usually takes the incarnation of a new committee. New procedures and processes are set up to prevent this “type” of problem from occurring in the future. The new procedures and processes themselves get a life of their own and have to be maintained which means new job roles or at the very least new job responsibilities are added, and the bureaucracy expands.

(Step 7 and 1) A new bold vision is defined…

And the rest is…déjà-vu!

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