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The art and science of the possible

~ A celebration of non-zero sum thinking

The art and science of the possible

Tag Archives: Capitalism

Don’t fix Capitalism; realize its opportunities!

09 Sunday Mar 2014

Posted by lnedelescu in business, capitalism, human capital, innovation, knowledge, society

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Capitalism, creativity, daydreaming, economics, Global Peter Drucker Forum, Harvard Business Review, human capital, Imagination, Industrial Revolution, Invention, Marxism, non-zero sum thinking, Peter Drucker, Prosperity, wealth

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Despite what you may be led to think when listening to heated political debates and cable news wise men, things are not that complicated when it comes to humanity’s predicament.

In a time when common folk and elites alike decry Capitalism and seem intent on going after it with pitchforks, I say we have yet to achieve it.

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The True Capitalist Manifesto

29 Tuesday Oct 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in capitalism, future, human capital, philosophy, society

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Capitalism, Communism, Harvard Business Review, Industrial Revolution, Karl Marx, Knowledge Economy, Manifesto, Umair Hague

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Picture the time in which Karl Marx’s Communist Manifesto emerged. The Industrial Revolution, unraveling in full force, was very much based on a materialist world view. Since physical resources are limited it’s only normal that someone, Marx or otherwise, would have signaled that a zero sum race for wealth will make some extremely rich only at the expense of others. And indeed there was some truth to that, as exceedingly ambitious industrialists seemed to have no limit to their greed. There’s no leap of logic required to arrive at the “class warfare” idea aimed to right the inequities generated by a zero sum game world. Accumulation of things, cordially known as consumerism in our time, was also decried by communists as a sickness of the soul.

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Beyond Complexity

05 Tuesday Mar 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in complexity

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Capitalism, complexity, Consciousness, Davos, Emergence, Humanity, philosophy, Physics, Quantum, science

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You’ve probably noticed the growing interest in complexity. And it’s not just scientists. Want proof? The very first sentence in Davos 2013 executive summary pays homage to complexity: “we live in the most complex, interdependent and interconnected era in human history – a reality we know as the hyperconnected world.” As global systemic problems (terrorism, 2008 financial crisis, etc.) proliferate , the interest in the topic is understandable. Democracy, capitalism and other fundamental social constructs are becoming fair game for possible adjustment, or even overhaul. Steve Denning’s “Can Complexity Fix Capitalism” piece in Forbes (http://tinyurl.com/bonnswe) or the 2013 Global Peter Drucker Forum’s “Mastering Complexity” theme are illustrative of the general perception that complexity is the next challenge that humanity must master.

So when everyone’s still struggling with grasping complexity (myself included), I’ve decided to ask the next level question: is there anything beyond?

To go after that question, we first have to capture complexity in a nutshell. I propose we start at the “mechanism” level. Emergence is a key observed complexity mechanism where the outcomes of a collection of building blocks display properties or behaviors that are beyond those of individual blocks. So this means that emergence implies hierarchy. The direction in which the hierarchy is constructed is important. In the case of complexity, smaller things give way to larger things, and so there is an “upward causality”.

Enter 20th century physics. It tells us that all things are made of atoms, and apparently the microscopic scales they inhabit are governed by the paradoxical quantum physics. So taking the upward causality complexity route, atoms form molecules, molecules form cells, and we get to neurons and finally the human brain, ironically the most complex thing we’ve come across in the universe so far. And it too appears to have emergent properties, such as free will and consciousness. Problem solved, the most beautiful of emergent properties of the universe, human consciousness, can be explained with complexity, right? And so, no product of the universe is beyond the grasp of complexity according to the upward causality model.  So complexity appears to be the ultimate barrier and there is nothing beyond it?

Well in order to answer this last question, we would have to reconcile quantum physics with emergence and complexity. And quantum physics presupposes a matter-probability dualism which remains beyond human comprehension. Here’s the problem. The brain supposedly functions based on electrical signal transfer between neurons. And so there is an exchange of energy across a tiny time and space inside your head. But quantum physics includes at least a few observed principles that defy the space-time-energy construct. Take quantum non-locality, where two photons that come in contact can be separated by vast differences, and yet, with no energy exchange they are able to instantaneously affect each other. It’s as if somehow one “knows” about the other. Another interesting phenomenon in quantum physics says that an observer is able to collapse the myriad of parallel probabilities in the quantum world to a single possibility simply by observation alone. It’s as if any choice is possible until the observer intervenes and induces an irreversible choice.

So what happens to all these highly mysterious properties at the quantum level as they are embedded in higher order complex structures such as the brain? Could such quantum properties that appear to presuppose choice have something to do with the free will aspect of human consciousness? What about quantum non-locality? Information processing and communication in the quantum world apparently doesn’t necessarily require a space-time-energy construct, so why should consciousness do so if it is made up of basic quantum particles? What if the brain is not just an electrical computing device but also a quantum computing device? What would that the quantum non-locality principle imply for individual consciousness if it cannot be contained in a space-time? Would that point to a collective consciousness? Does the fact that two subatomic particles “know” their state at a distance or the fact that a subatomic particle appears to “know” it is being observed imply a universal space-time-energy free construct within which complexity can live?  Is this the “fabric” which complexity requires just like Einstein’s space-time is the fabric on which energy-matter can be manifested? And if there is a such a construct, is there a downward causality which influences emergence in a certain direction?  Ultimately is or consciousness a manifestation of the subtle interaction between upward causality emergence and the rules of an elusive space-time-energy invariant construct we have yet to observe?

Apparently I am not the first to ask this question. Amit Goswamy has been a self titled “quantum activist” for quite some time. His background in quantum physics certainly helps him. But what I am additionally proposing in this blog is the exploration of the intersection of quantum physics and complexity sciences. Apparently there is a connection between the two, and attempting to see how they relate might provide at the very least important philosophical insights.

And finally moving ahead to “beyond complexity” when we haven’t yet figured out complexity? Who said exploration has to follow a neat sequence?

Is human psychology keeping up with our technological times?

18 Monday Feb 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in human capital, Organizational Development, society, technology

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Capitalism, Consumerism, Innovation, Society, Technology

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We live in a world with instant access to vast amounts of information, and to each other. Information used to be held by a privileged few. Now it’s available to the masses at large. And so a number of information age visionaries are predicting the end of the world as we know it, and the beginning of a new and enlightened world. Michael Saylor for example predicts in his book “The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything” that information technology, especially when coupled with mobile devices that provide continuous instant access, will revolutionize the world. I am inclined to say “not so fast” to these claims.

Here’s a key reason. Human psychology is important in helping us disseminate between the important and the trivial: it is a remnant from the fight or flee instinct that kept our stone age ancestors alive in the face of deadly danger. Our beliefs bias our judgement. And our behavior has been conditioned for too long to respect power, prestige and authority. We are conditioned to trust persons in positions of authority. We are conditioned to follow mostly what successful people say or do. We are conditioned to flock around role models ever since the tribal dawn of our social civilization. The king is dead, long live the thought leader!

So in a competition with the Harvard Business Review’s (HBR) blog, my  blog stands no chance, even if it may contain comparable wisdom. The entire promise of the information age revolutionizing the world rests on a process of democratization of the right to access and more importantly produce knowledge content. Thomas Friedman, author of “The World is Flat”, mirrors this democratic move away from established institutions and to the individual. He differentiates between the current Globalization 3.0 (individual as main protagonist) and and previous Globalization 1.0 (countries and governments were the main protagonists) and Globalization 2.0 (multinational companies led the way in driving global integration). The information age can be a democratic platform for a really smart individual to compete asymmetrically with established authority, say HBR, on equal footing. And technologically speaking, this is indeed possible.

But technology is only as useful as we make it to be, and our psychology may not have been keeping up with the times. For example, we are not yet blind to prestige.  Nor has our wisdom increased to the degree that we can discern value outside of brands. So even though a wealth of wisdom is available to us from a myriad of sources that are competing asymmetrically with established players for our attention span, we continue to flock around the HBRs of the world like ancient Greeks flocked around oracles. Every once in a while something goes “viral”, but the established players have nothing to worry about: it is usually the picture of the morning cereal that resembles Hillary Clinton that qualifies for exponential popularity. So what will truly revolutionize the world in my opinion is getting away from the sheep mentality so we can take full advantage of knowledge proliferation.

So where does that live me and you dear reader? Well, in order for me to gain access to you, or for you find my thinking, we likely will still have to go through an HBR-like middle-man. Even though technology has leveled or “flattened” the playing field as Friedman might say, psychology still provides job security for the middle-man.

A few thoughts on humanity’s future

18 Monday Feb 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in future, philosophy, society

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Capitalism, Consumerism, creativity, democracy, Economy, future, human, Nature, philosophy, politics, Society

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“Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world” is a well known quote of Albert Einstein. The insights one can derive from Einstein’s wisdom are powerful enough to shed light into humanity’s future.

But before jumping to the future, let’s take a step back and attempt to frame, in general terms, humanity’s current state. The multiparty democratic construct supported by a free market economy was challenged in the last hundred years by at least two competing totalitarian ideologies and thankfully, it has been reaffirmed as the best model for human organization we know. So Winston Churchill was probably right when he declared in 1947 that “democracy is the worst form of government except for all those others that have been tried”. Diversity and competition, two mechanisms that served the natural world so well, appear to be the most viable means by which social systems can also evolve. But social systems are different than natural systems. Besides diversity and competition, social systems also include compassion. And so, the modern democratic construct is itself polarized around two dominant ideologies, which are more aligned with either compassion or competition. So far so good. Now let’s take a closer look at the competitive mechanism.

An opportunity usually arises when a competitive advantage is created. And a competitive advantage can itself come in two flavors. First, it can come from exploiting a physical or knowledge differential (I have access to a physical or knowledge resource that you need). But physical resources are limited, and, if we believe Einstein, so is knowledge. So, as long as it competes primarily in the physical and knowledge domains, humanity is playing a zero sum game. Enter the Internet age with all the related technologies and barriers to physical and knowledge resources are rapidly dissolving. That means that competitive advantages based on limited resources will become increasingly harder to exploit and defend. Which brings me to the second flavor of competitive advantages, those derived from an unlimited resource: creativity.

Creativity is one of the most unique, and arguably most beautiful facets of the human condition. Its sources are curiosity and passion, human characteristics which are hard to incentivize. Material compensation and reward will not necessarily increase curiosity or passion. Curiosity can be instilled and nurtured, but not bought or coerced.

And so, in my opinion, humanity’s future is predicated on a competitive construct based on an unlimited resource: creativity. This is the next step beyond the so called “knowledge economy”. This type of competitive construct is also in alignment with the best that human nature has to offer; curiosity, passion, dedication, are all positivist sentiments in alignment with compassion, trust and respect. This evolution does present significant challenges to the current bi-polar democratic construct that poises compassion against competition. Consumerism, a key component of the economic engine on which the current democratic construct’s viability depends, is primarily based on limited resources; it will also have to evolve to where humanity becomes a primary consumer of ideas, truth and beauty.

Christensen’s Category Dilemma

07 Thursday Feb 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in innovation, taxonomy

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Ackoff, Capitalism, capitalist, Christensen, dilemma, disruptive, Drucker, effectiveness, future, Innovation

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“The Innovator’s Dilemma” catapulted Clayton Christensen to the world’s top echelon of innovation experts. He has been called for example the architect of and the world’s foremost authority on disruptive innovation. In the book that became his claim to fame he was first to describe the mechanisms that are behind disruptive innovation, the type of innovation that entranced players never see coming as they are unseated from their dominant market positions by new entrants. Christensen explained how the business world’s Davids can beat their Golliahs.

More recently Christensen upgraded his innovation insights to address a much loftier goal: the future of capitalism. To ensure continuity with his earlier work, he has framed this new-found and larger scope interest with an appropriate catch-phrase: “The Capitalist Dilemma”. In short he proposes that there are different flavors of innovation and that not all innovation creates jobs; in fact innovation can destroy jobs and thus make capitalism unsustainable.

Christensen proposes three innovation categories: empowering, sustaining, and efficiency. A short definition of these and their relationship to job creation and destruction follows (source: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/21/business/opinion-clayton-christensen):

“Empowering” innovations transform complicated, costly products that previously had been available only to a few people, into simpler, cheaper products available to many. Empowering innovations create jobs for people who build, distribute, sell and service these products.

“Sustaining” innovations replace old products with new. They have a zero-sum effect on jobs and capital.

“Efficiency” innovations reduce the cost of making and distributing existing products and services. Efficiency innovations almost always reduce the net number of jobs in an industry, allow the same amount of work (or more) to get done using fewer people. 

Since the world’s elite are interested in both innovation and the future of capitalism, Christensen was one of the special guests at Davos, where he was asked to clarify his ideas on the fate of capitalism. While non-trivial to understand, his thesis is nonetheless simple to state: there are reasons to believe the world is putting too much emphasis on efficiency innovation, leaving capitalism at risk. Because of an erroneous finance doctrine, as more capital is freed by efficiency innovations, it is put right back into more efficiency innovations, compounding the job elimination effect.

More interestingly however, he started his argument with the need to define the right “categories” for any problem one might tackle, in this case innovation. He said that it took him a long time to arrive at the three innovation categories that finally fit the model for sustainable capitalism.

Now here’s my problem with Christensen categories, which I’ve appropriately termed “Christensen’s Category Dilemma”. But firstly, let me say that in general I absolutely agree with him that a prerequisite to an effective solution is framing the problem rightly, which in many cases means categorizing the problem’s constituent elements correctly. Ambiguity begets ambiguity. But the issue is that he is not acknowledging his predecessor and contemporary thinkers that have already defined similar categories 20-30-40 years ago. To his merit, Christensen applies existing categories to new contexts, resulting in novel insights. And he does so based on pure observation with apparently little a-priory knowledge of the existing related categories. This further reinforces the existing categories. And that in itself – a reconfirmation of existing categories based on observations in new contexts – is a powerful insight providing continuity of thought. And so, Christensen’s “efficiency” innovation category belongs for example to Peter Drucker’s more general “doing things right” category, and “empowering” innovation belongs to “doing the right things” respectively. Efficiency innovation is also traceable to Roger Martin’s “reliability” category, and empowering innovation to Martin’s “validity” category respectively. And the list can continue. Just to be clear, I am not suggesting plagiarism by any means. While Christensen’s categories can be traced to existing thinking, he is applying these to new phenomena resulting in new and unique insights. I am merely proposing that without the tractability to related existing thinking we those following his thinking are poorer when it comes to the larger context.

So the “category dilemma” is this: with fame and glory appears to come a mandate which carries a huge responsibility: that of framing knowledge, of raising the knowledge scaffolding on which others can build. Since success can have a self-reinforcing effect, gurus can find themselves on a pedestal that is largely beyond peer review and they often have the power to define their own categories. With that power also comes the responsibility to connect new knowledge to existing knowledge. That is because naming an existing category by a different name prevents access to potentially very useful insights already proven and tested in the past. In Professor John Gero’s words, “Ontologies provide a domain with a structure for the knowledge in that domain. Domains without ontologies are constantly inventing new terms for existing knowledge and find it difficult to develop foundations on which others can build.” And so, until Christensen and others of his statute acknowledge this implicit responsibility, the “category dilemma” will live on, and the world will make slower progress than it otherwise should.

The reader may have noticed that I did not debate or critique Christensen’s thesis; that is because I wholeheartedly agree with it. I can do so because I can relate Christensen’s thinking to principles that have been proven time and again, which can be traced to evolutionism, complexity, design, and systems thinking. So to me, Christensen’s thesis comes as a confirmation rather than a revelation. But Christensen has a responsibility to not assume that his audience at large can do the same. It’s not a matter of the facts, it’s a matter of the principles.

Davos, innovation and the future of capitalism

23 Wednesday Jan 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in capitalism, democracy, future, innovation, society, taxonomy

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Ackoff, Capitalism, Christensen, Davos, Drucker, effectiveness, Innovation, management, Martin, Responsibility, Thought Leader

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Many of the sessions at Davos 2013 contain “innovation” in the title. Two of the top names in management and innovation are present as well: Clayton Christensen and Roger Martin. Unfortunately, the fact they speak with separate voices about the same underlying phenomena is not helping their cause, which holds more potential for true transformation of the world economy than many of the purely economic insights of the typical Davos crowd:

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/21/business/opinion-clayton-christensen/index.html

http://www.rogerlmartin.com/wp-content/themes/rm2009/pdfs/strategy_issue23_thinkingbydesign.pdf

Peter Drucker and Russell Ackoff have 20-30 years ago explained the fundamentals behind the phenomena observed by both Christensen and Martin: in essence effectiveness trumps efficiency. Christensen and Martin thus have a great responsibility, that of acknowledging each other so as to not fragment the legacy of Drucker and Ackoff’s schools of thought; in today’s environment the urgency is such that we can’t afford recreating the Tower of Babel experiment. But even if they and others like them (Dave Snowden, David Hurst, Fredmund Malik, etc.) were to speak with one voice, the real decision makers at Davos will have little clue as to what these two guys are talking about. That is because one can only fully absorb something one can relate to personal experience. Decision makers cannot be taught, even if they had the humility to listen (relevant Ackoff quote: “We don’t recognize that teaching is a major obstruction to learning […] Who in the classroom learns the most…. the teacher. See the classroom is upside down.”).

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