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There are many models for strategy under uncertainty but few useful metaphors. Just what does strategy under complex, unpredictable conditions look like? Picture yourself attempting to cross a fast moving stream by stepping on small, irregular, slippery and so unstable rocks. Your vision is clear: get to the other side of the stream. You could sit there and contemplate a viable path across the stream, but your plan will be sketchy at best. For one, the water partially obscures many of the stones you’re about to use, making it impossible to make accurate predictions in terms of stability. Off you go. You find out quickly that the best approach is keeping a lightfoot and moving very fast. You never want to lean all your weight on any particular stone. You use each stone with the assumption that it will roll – and so you minimize your time spent on each step. You improvise – you focus on the next viable step, and only see the few stones around it.
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