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The art and science of the possible

Tag Archives: Drucker

Post-causality: a quiet global revolution in the making

05 Wednesday Jun 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in business, capitalism, complexity, consulting, democracy, future, human capital, innovation, knowledge, management, philosophy, problem solving, society, taxonomy, technology

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Big Data, business, Categorization, causality, Cause and Effect, complexity, creativity, Cynefin, Daniel Pink, Dave Snowden, Drucker, Drucker Forum, Emergence, future, Imagination, Innovation, Knowledge, management, Methods, models, Motivation, Peter Checkland, Resilience, Revolution, Roger Martin, Russell Ackoff, Safety, Sense Making, Social Systems, Society

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If one were to cut a global cross-section through social classes, nationalities, ethnicities, ages, professions, genders, and so forth, very few commonalities would emerge. And yet, there is I propose just such a common thread: a shared causality mindset, a globally predominant belief in the supremacy of cause and effect.

Since it is people who run our institutions, this belief continues to shape our modern society and even influence to a large extent the technological outcrops of our knowledge economy. From business strategy to macroeconomic models, and from political debates to Big Data, causality is pervasive and its implications profound.

Continue reading →

Drucker’s “doing the right thing”, Superman’s Lex Luthor and sales strategy

30 Tuesday Apr 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in business, sales, taxonomy

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Ackoff, Apple, Customer Approach, Drucker, Effectiveness vs. Efficiency, Gene Hackman, Lex Luthor, Sales, Steve Jobs, strategy, Superman

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Foundational thinkers are often politely dismissed on the excuse that “abstract” insights are difficult to apply to concrete situations. I will make use of Drucker’s paramount distinction between “doing things right and doing the right thing” to counter that popular belief using a concrete example: sales. But before tackling the sales example, let me make use of another foundational thinker of similar caliber, Russell Ackoff, to reinforce Drucker’s distinction. In Ackoff parlance, “doing things right” results in more efficiency, or improving a certain solution, while “doing the right thing” is a matter of effectiveness, or questioning the problem statement.

Now let’s move on to the sales example. In sales we are taught that the customer is king. And as long as the customer knows what he wants and what his problem is, this is great. But in many cases, particularly in today’s increasingly complex world, the customer doesn’t know what his problem is and may not even know what he wants. Continue reading →

A brief modern history of future predictions: engineers vs. social scientists

23 Tuesday Apr 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in complexity, future, problem solving, society

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Club of Rome, Cold War, Consumerism, Drucker, future, management, Management Cybernetics, philosophy, Philosophy of Science, Quantitative vs. Qualitative Predictions, Social Science, Society, Stafford Beer, System Dynamics, Toffler

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At the height of the Cold War predicting the future become serious business. A nuclear World War III was a real possibility and a literally cold and dark planet awash in radioactive ash a likely prospect. But communism wasn’t the only threat to the free world. Ideology aside, consumerism coupled with energy shortages and population growth provided good reason for questioning the very sustainability of our civilization. Ironically, communist propaganda pointed precisely to greed as capitalism’s Achilles heel.

So it isn’t surprising that by the 1970’s two schools of thought were already embarking on predicting the future. Since I have not come across this type of distinction between “futurists” in literature, I will proceed to describe it here. It is worth noting that by “distinction” I don’t mean opposition since both schools of thought can be regarded as members of the larger umbrella of systems thinkers.

First let’s loosely define the “engineers”, or better said, the engineering school of thought. Engineering had proven successful in World War II for a number of inventions, including rocket control systems. While Wernher Von Braun was working hard on getting us to the Moon, geniuses of the likes of Jay Forrester and Stafford Beer saw other uses for rocket control theory. Namely they had the insight to apply engineering thinking, particularly the mechanism of feedback, to social systems. This resulted, respectively, in the birth of two entirely new disciplines: system dynamics and management cybernetics. In parallel, Mihajlo Mesarovic, also an engineer emeritus with whom I’ve had the privilege of taking a graduate course at Case Western Reserve University, was also working on an elaborate mathematical model to predict the future state of the world. The Club of Rome, a new organization with an interest in humanity’s fate, saw the opportunity for these new methods to lend a degree of rigorousness to their own predictions about humanity’s long term future. This resulted in several publications in the early 1970’s. Limits to Growth and Mankind at the Turning Point received widespread attention since they discussed the “predicament of mankind”. The underlying belief of the engineering school of thought was that given a sophisticated enough computer model, the future could be more of less “mathematically” derived. Perhaps not surprisingly The Limits to Growth report was first introduced at a symposium in St. Gallen Switzerland, which remains a powerhouse for management cybernetics – Fredmund Malik and his consultancy continuing to this day the work started by Stafford Beer.  In essence Limits to Growth painted a pessimistic view for the world future where shortages were likely to stop and even revert human progress. Simply put, the Club of Rome’s prediction for the early 21st century, largely based in engineering thinking, spelled disaster.

At about the same time, a number of futurists emerged from the direction of the social sciences. Peter Drucker, Alvin Toffler, Charles Handy and others were by no means engineers and were not using models, at least not in the quantitative sense; however, this did not discourage them from looking into the future. The term that Peter Drucker eventually chose to describe himself, “social ecologist”, captures well this entire breed of futurists. What these futurists were is astute observers of the human condition and social ecology, the same “tools” employed by the ancient Greek philosophers whose insights still form the basis of western culture. Drucker and his peers did not use quantitative methods but made predictions derived from qualitative insights at the intersection of human psychology, technology and social constructs. Many of those predictions are still relevant today while predictions presented by the engineering school of thought had to be dismissed or significantly adjusted. In all fairness, in the Club of Rome’s 2012 update to the Limits to Growth, “2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years”,  they have moved considerably away from hard quantifiable predictions. They have also moved in the direction of the social, describing their latest work as “educated guesses, combining data, modelling and hard science with an understanding of human nature and its systems and intuitions”.

Per this latest evidence, the two schools of thought can be said to be converging. Perhaps the best insight to be derived from the distinction presented in this piece is that we have much work to do in reconciling natural and social sciences. Until we do, and possibly even after, predicting the future will remain messy business. Elliott Jaques and Ilya Prigogine come to mind as two exponents of the social and respectively natural sciences that have made significant strides in reducing the divide between the two paradigms. I have always said that the universe preceded humans and so, the fact that we glean it through the reductionist lens of separate sciences suits our own convenience more than cosmological reality.

What about our ability to predict the future? Is it a legitimate undertaking or modern alchemy? Is the future clearly discernible through the lens of an all encompassing computer model, or does Lorenz’s and Feingenbaum’s Chaos Theory with its Butterfly Effect render any attempt at prediction hopeless? I would dare say that the work of Drucker, Toffler, and Handy among others has addressed both assertions: exact predictions of the future based in quantitative methods is indeed a hopeless undertaking, but a broad, nonspecific peak at the future is possible through the lens of qualitative thinking anchored in the constancy of human nature. But here’s the catch: only a select few appear to have the capacity for this type of undertaking, and they certainly aren’t employing a repeatable process or “best practice” in doing so. For the time being it appears that staring into the future is more art and science.

Christensen’s Category Dilemma

07 Thursday Feb 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in innovation, taxonomy

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Ackoff, Capitalism, capitalist, Christensen, dilemma, disruptive, Drucker, effectiveness, future, Innovation

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“The Innovator’s Dilemma” catapulted Clayton Christensen to the world’s top echelon of innovation experts. He has been called for example the architect of and the world’s foremost authority on disruptive innovation. In the book that became his claim to fame he was first to describe the mechanisms that are behind disruptive innovation, the type of innovation that entranced players never see coming as they are unseated from their dominant market positions by new entrants. Christensen explained how the business world’s Davids can beat their Golliahs.

More recently Christensen upgraded his innovation insights to address a much loftier goal: the future of capitalism. To ensure continuity with his earlier work, he has framed this new-found and larger scope interest with an appropriate catch-phrase: “The Capitalist Dilemma”. In short he proposes that there are different flavors of innovation and that not all innovation creates jobs; in fact innovation can destroy jobs and thus make capitalism unsustainable.

Christensen proposes three innovation categories: empowering, sustaining, and efficiency. A short definition of these and their relationship to job creation and destruction follows (source: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/21/business/opinion-clayton-christensen):

“Empowering” innovations transform complicated, costly products that previously had been available only to a few people, into simpler, cheaper products available to many. Empowering innovations create jobs for people who build, distribute, sell and service these products.

“Sustaining” innovations replace old products with new. They have a zero-sum effect on jobs and capital.

“Efficiency” innovations reduce the cost of making and distributing existing products and services. Efficiency innovations almost always reduce the net number of jobs in an industry, allow the same amount of work (or more) to get done using fewer people. 

Since the world’s elite are interested in both innovation and the future of capitalism, Christensen was one of the special guests at Davos, where he was asked to clarify his ideas on the fate of capitalism. While non-trivial to understand, his thesis is nonetheless simple to state: there are reasons to believe the world is putting too much emphasis on efficiency innovation, leaving capitalism at risk. Because of an erroneous finance doctrine, as more capital is freed by efficiency innovations, it is put right back into more efficiency innovations, compounding the job elimination effect.

More interestingly however, he started his argument with the need to define the right “categories” for any problem one might tackle, in this case innovation. He said that it took him a long time to arrive at the three innovation categories that finally fit the model for sustainable capitalism.

Now here’s my problem with Christensen categories, which I’ve appropriately termed “Christensen’s Category Dilemma”. But firstly, let me say that in general I absolutely agree with him that a prerequisite to an effective solution is framing the problem rightly, which in many cases means categorizing the problem’s constituent elements correctly. Ambiguity begets ambiguity. But the issue is that he is not acknowledging his predecessor and contemporary thinkers that have already defined similar categories 20-30-40 years ago. To his merit, Christensen applies existing categories to new contexts, resulting in novel insights. And he does so based on pure observation with apparently little a-priory knowledge of the existing related categories. This further reinforces the existing categories. And that in itself – a reconfirmation of existing categories based on observations in new contexts – is a powerful insight providing continuity of thought. And so, Christensen’s “efficiency” innovation category belongs for example to Peter Drucker’s more general “doing things right” category, and “empowering” innovation belongs to “doing the right things” respectively. Efficiency innovation is also traceable to Roger Martin’s “reliability” category, and empowering innovation to Martin’s “validity” category respectively. And the list can continue. Just to be clear, I am not suggesting plagiarism by any means. While Christensen’s categories can be traced to existing thinking, he is applying these to new phenomena resulting in new and unique insights. I am merely proposing that without the tractability to related existing thinking we those following his thinking are poorer when it comes to the larger context.

So the “category dilemma” is this: with fame and glory appears to come a mandate which carries a huge responsibility: that of framing knowledge, of raising the knowledge scaffolding on which others can build. Since success can have a self-reinforcing effect, gurus can find themselves on a pedestal that is largely beyond peer review and they often have the power to define their own categories. With that power also comes the responsibility to connect new knowledge to existing knowledge. That is because naming an existing category by a different name prevents access to potentially very useful insights already proven and tested in the past. In Professor John Gero’s words, “Ontologies provide a domain with a structure for the knowledge in that domain. Domains without ontologies are constantly inventing new terms for existing knowledge and find it difficult to develop foundations on which others can build.” And so, until Christensen and others of his statute acknowledge this implicit responsibility, the “category dilemma” will live on, and the world will make slower progress than it otherwise should.

The reader may have noticed that I did not debate or critique Christensen’s thesis; that is because I wholeheartedly agree with it. I can do so because I can relate Christensen’s thinking to principles that have been proven time and again, which can be traced to evolutionism, complexity, design, and systems thinking. So to me, Christensen’s thesis comes as a confirmation rather than a revelation. But Christensen has a responsibility to not assume that his audience at large can do the same. It’s not a matter of the facts, it’s a matter of the principles.

Davos, innovation and the future of capitalism

23 Wednesday Jan 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in capitalism, democracy, future, innovation, society, taxonomy

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Ackoff, Capitalism, Christensen, Davos, Drucker, effectiveness, Innovation, management, Martin, Responsibility, Thought Leader

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Many of the sessions at Davos 2013 contain “innovation” in the title. Two of the top names in management and innovation are present as well: Clayton Christensen and Roger Martin. Unfortunately, the fact they speak with separate voices about the same underlying phenomena is not helping their cause, which holds more potential for true transformation of the world economy than many of the purely economic insights of the typical Davos crowd:

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/21/business/opinion-clayton-christensen/index.html

http://www.rogerlmartin.com/wp-content/themes/rm2009/pdfs/strategy_issue23_thinkingbydesign.pdf

Peter Drucker and Russell Ackoff have 20-30 years ago explained the fundamentals behind the phenomena observed by both Christensen and Martin: in essence effectiveness trumps efficiency. Christensen and Martin thus have a great responsibility, that of acknowledging each other so as to not fragment the legacy of Drucker and Ackoff’s schools of thought; in today’s environment the urgency is such that we can’t afford recreating the Tower of Babel experiment. But even if they and others like them (Dave Snowden, David Hurst, Fredmund Malik, etc.) were to speak with one voice, the real decision makers at Davos will have little clue as to what these two guys are talking about. That is because one can only fully absorb something one can relate to personal experience. Decision makers cannot be taught, even if they had the humility to listen (relevant Ackoff quote: “We don’t recognize that teaching is a major obstruction to learning […] Who in the classroom learns the most…. the teacher. See the classroom is upside down.”).

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