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The art and science of the possible

Category Archives: society

The type of corporate hypocrisy that won’t fly in the future

15 Monday Apr 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in business, future, society

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business, Competitive advantage, corporate hypocrisy, customer experience, customer service, feedback, online surveys, Technology

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Here’s an example of corporate hypocrisy I’m sure you’ve run across. You cancel a service and you receive an email that asks for your feedback in the form of a “brief online survey”. At the bottom of the generic “no-reply” email is a link to a survey along with the signature of some corporate executive with a real name, say Fred Doe, Executive Vice President, Customer Service. Here’s the hypocrisy. If all is wanted is a stencil multiple choice feedback, then why not a generic corporate signature in line with the generic computer generated message? On the other hand, if a real person is involved, then why is the person’s email missing and the “no-reply” option turned on?

The answer is that this type of approach aims to reconcile the human with the technological. Technology is used to interface with the consumer, but there is an embedded emotional trigger. Large companies are particularly susceptible to this type of approach since they have many more consumers than employees, and so it is believed that a personalized connection to the consumer is impossible. But in this case consumers can be treated as adults rather than presented with cheap emotional tricks. I propose that in the future large companies that will find ways to address this issue, that will be able to combine economies of scale with personalized service, will have a significant competitive advantage. This is the holy grail for customer service in a world where business is becoming bigger just as the consumer is becoming increasingly aware of his individuality.

Can we stop already with management by popular opinion?

05 Tuesday Mar 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in management, society

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business, Celebrity, culture, Hollywood, Leadership, Marissa, Mayer

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Let me start by asking: aren’t you tired already of seeing Marissa Mayer’s face on every online media channel every single day? Since when did management become a popularity contest in the court of public opinion? Do we all have nothing better to do? It seems to me we are slowly transforming the profession of management into a circus, complete with soap drama. If we are looking for role models, I would say we are looking in the wrong place. We have a new breed of executives, namely the “celebrity” CEO. I am sure she is a good human being and of above average competence and intelligence, but to me a role model has to have done significantly more than taken full advantage of the opportunity of being at the right place at the right time. Role models to me have to somehow embody that Greek tragedy hero quality of fall from grace and resurrection.

Now management is an endeavor that aims for long term results. Results speak louder than words, and long term means that an observer shouldn’t judge one micro-decision at a time. So if I were Marissa, I would respectfully ask everyone to please abstain from having an opinion about the duration of my lunch, or my working hours, or other similar triviality. But to me she appears to at least partly enjoy the attention. CEOs are not alone in the quest for “celebrity”. CNN anchors and many others are helping to spread the Hollywood phenomenon outside of the entertainment industry.

In Einstein’s words: the importance of history, philosophy and context

03 Sunday Mar 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in philosophy, science, society

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philosophy, science

context-free-tree

“I fully agree with you about the significance and educational value of methodology as well as history and philosophy of science. So many people today – and even professional scientists – seem to me like somebody who has seen thousands of trees but has never seen a forest. A knowledge of the historic and philosophical background gives that kind of independence from prejudices of his generation from which most scientists are suffering. This independence created by philosophical insight is – in my opinion – the mark of distinction between a mere artisan or specialist and a real seeker after truth.” Einstein. letter to Robert A. Thornton, 7 December 1944.

Humanity’s cosmic connection: from physics to economics

03 Sunday Mar 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in complexity, science, society

≈ 2 Comments

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Economy, inspiring, Nature, philosophy, science, Society

supernova_3

First, there was the universe. And then came humans. We study the universe sometimes forgetting we are the universe. There are lots of pointers to our cosmic connections. I am not referring to the documentaries on National Geographic where Michio Kaku, the celebrity physicist, tells us that every atom in our body was forged in supernovae that exploded a long time ago. Rather, in this blog I will be exploring a more more fundamental connection, between the least understood laws of the universe we’ve so far uncovered and a basic social human activity, between quantum mechanics and economics.

Why even explore such connections? Because similarities across sciences may have profound philosophical implications. We have to remember that dividing the observed reality into various sciences is a human construct meant to make things easier to deal with for us. The universe was not set up that way. So, every opportunity for common insights across sciences should be taken seriously, as it might shed light into our very nature and purpose.

Quantum mechanics had profound philosophical implications since the moment its laws were discovered in the earlier 20th century. It basically implied that the universe is unpredictable, that there is a fundamental limit to what humans can determine. Until then, Newtonian physics promised determinism, since, if one could measure the motion of all atoms, one could even predict the future, which becomes but the sum of all motions. But quantum mechanics, still beyond the grasp of human logic, says that there is a yet unexplained connection between the observer and experiment. Somehow the observer cannot be separated from experiment, and so, past some microscopic scale, the very process of observation changes the experiment, so that we can never determine exactly the initial state of a given situation.

As interesting as the implications of quantum mechanics might be, the general consensus was the microscopic scales don’t apply in the macroscopic world of humans.

But in economics a similar principle proposing a link between observer and experiment has been proposed. A number of cyberneticicians in the 1970s challenged the classical economic theory proposing that markets tend to equilibrium. They instead proposed that classical economic theory is based on the observer being clearly separated from the experiment. But if the observer is also part of the economic “game”, there is a limit to what we can predict about future outcomes reminiscent of quantum mechanics. The observer being embedded in the experiment is deemed in cybernetic theory as “reflexivity”. It’s as if cause and effect are not sequential, but rather they affect each other simultaneously  Gives one a headache just thinking about it.

So the question then becomes, how could the micro and macro worlds share characteristics? What is the connection? Well, social systems are made of people. And people act according to a computing device called “the brain”. And the brain is made of neurons which transmit electrical signals, i.e. exchange electrons. And electrons are small enough to be influenced by quantum laws. If the brain has the characteristics of a quantum computing device, this might explain why human behavior in inherently unpredictable and why, systems that include many humans, are even less predictable. While this reality may really piss off statisticians, it is otherwise a good thing: it says that humans have free will, are creative beings that can design their own future. But those insisting on predictions and reading into coffee cups shouldn’t get completely depressed. There is a way to predict the future: design it! 🙂

Is human psychology keeping up with our technological times?

18 Monday Feb 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in human capital, Organizational Development, society, technology

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Capitalism, Consumerism, Innovation, Society, Technology

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We live in a world with instant access to vast amounts of information, and to each other. Information used to be held by a privileged few. Now it’s available to the masses at large. And so a number of information age visionaries are predicting the end of the world as we know it, and the beginning of a new and enlightened world. Michael Saylor for example predicts in his book “The Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything” that information technology, especially when coupled with mobile devices that provide continuous instant access, will revolutionize the world. I am inclined to say “not so fast” to these claims.

Here’s a key reason. Human psychology is important in helping us disseminate between the important and the trivial: it is a remnant from the fight or flee instinct that kept our stone age ancestors alive in the face of deadly danger. Our beliefs bias our judgement. And our behavior has been conditioned for too long to respect power, prestige and authority. We are conditioned to trust persons in positions of authority. We are conditioned to follow mostly what successful people say or do. We are conditioned to flock around role models ever since the tribal dawn of our social civilization. The king is dead, long live the thought leader!

So in a competition with the Harvard Business Review’s (HBR) blog, my  blog stands no chance, even if it may contain comparable wisdom. The entire promise of the information age revolutionizing the world rests on a process of democratization of the right to access and more importantly produce knowledge content. Thomas Friedman, author of “The World is Flat”, mirrors this democratic move away from established institutions and to the individual. He differentiates between the current Globalization 3.0 (individual as main protagonist) and and previous Globalization 1.0 (countries and governments were the main protagonists) and Globalization 2.0 (multinational companies led the way in driving global integration). The information age can be a democratic platform for a really smart individual to compete asymmetrically with established authority, say HBR, on equal footing. And technologically speaking, this is indeed possible.

But technology is only as useful as we make it to be, and our psychology may not have been keeping up with the times. For example, we are not yet blind to prestige.  Nor has our wisdom increased to the degree that we can discern value outside of brands. So even though a wealth of wisdom is available to us from a myriad of sources that are competing asymmetrically with established players for our attention span, we continue to flock around the HBRs of the world like ancient Greeks flocked around oracles. Every once in a while something goes “viral”, but the established players have nothing to worry about: it is usually the picture of the morning cereal that resembles Hillary Clinton that qualifies for exponential popularity. So what will truly revolutionize the world in my opinion is getting away from the sheep mentality so we can take full advantage of knowledge proliferation.

So where does that live me and you dear reader? Well, in order for me to gain access to you, or for you find my thinking, we likely will still have to go through an HBR-like middle-man. Even though technology has leveled or “flattened” the playing field as Friedman might say, psychology still provides job security for the middle-man.

A few thoughts on humanity’s future

18 Monday Feb 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in future, philosophy, society

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Capitalism, Consumerism, creativity, democracy, Economy, future, human, Nature, philosophy, politics, Society

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“Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world” is a well known quote of Albert Einstein. The insights one can derive from Einstein’s wisdom are powerful enough to shed light into humanity’s future.

But before jumping to the future, let’s take a step back and attempt to frame, in general terms, humanity’s current state. The multiparty democratic construct supported by a free market economy was challenged in the last hundred years by at least two competing totalitarian ideologies and thankfully, it has been reaffirmed as the best model for human organization we know. So Winston Churchill was probably right when he declared in 1947 that “democracy is the worst form of government except for all those others that have been tried”. Diversity and competition, two mechanisms that served the natural world so well, appear to be the most viable means by which social systems can also evolve. But social systems are different than natural systems. Besides diversity and competition, social systems also include compassion. And so, the modern democratic construct is itself polarized around two dominant ideologies, which are more aligned with either compassion or competition. So far so good. Now let’s take a closer look at the competitive mechanism.

An opportunity usually arises when a competitive advantage is created. And a competitive advantage can itself come in two flavors. First, it can come from exploiting a physical or knowledge differential (I have access to a physical or knowledge resource that you need). But physical resources are limited, and, if we believe Einstein, so is knowledge. So, as long as it competes primarily in the physical and knowledge domains, humanity is playing a zero sum game. Enter the Internet age with all the related technologies and barriers to physical and knowledge resources are rapidly dissolving. That means that competitive advantages based on limited resources will become increasingly harder to exploit and defend. Which brings me to the second flavor of competitive advantages, those derived from an unlimited resource: creativity.

Creativity is one of the most unique, and arguably most beautiful facets of the human condition. Its sources are curiosity and passion, human characteristics which are hard to incentivize. Material compensation and reward will not necessarily increase curiosity or passion. Curiosity can be instilled and nurtured, but not bought or coerced.

And so, in my opinion, humanity’s future is predicated on a competitive construct based on an unlimited resource: creativity. This is the next step beyond the so called “knowledge economy”. This type of competitive construct is also in alignment with the best that human nature has to offer; curiosity, passion, dedication, are all positivist sentiments in alignment with compassion, trust and respect. This evolution does present significant challenges to the current bi-polar democratic construct that poises compassion against competition. Consumerism, a key component of the economic engine on which the current democratic construct’s viability depends, is primarily based on limited resources; it will also have to evolve to where humanity becomes a primary consumer of ideas, truth and beauty.

The buzzword culture or how our confusion remains constant relative to progress

17 Sunday Feb 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in complexity, society, technology

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culture, problem solving, Society, Technology

buzzwords

Recently a Washington Post article explored the proliferation of obfuscatory language in our culture (see http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-02-06/lifestyle/37026527_1_initiatives-internet-web-site). An excerpt follows below:

“Before the Internet, obfuscatory language was mostly limited to the small world of the interoffice memo, where everyone conspired to be as vague and process-driven as possible — promising nothing concrete while sounding businesslike. Today, however, terms such as “optimize,” “prioritize,” “initiative,” “parameter,” “implement” and “effectuate” have become common parlance on the Web, used unabashedly in endlessly intriguing combinations. There are hundreds of instances of “prioritize the implementation of,” “implement the prioritization of,” “effectuate the implementation of,” etc. The expression “implementation of prioritized initiatives” alone appears on the Internet 2,100 times, more often than some of Pablo Neruda’s lesser-known love poems.”

I would single out as the biggest culprits in promoting useless jargon the big consulting companies and business schools. The big consulting houses sell in theory the same services but try to contrast and compare their offerings and you can get easily lost in a myriad of catch-phrases.

Alongside the business Illuminati, the IT revolution also resulted in an endless list of buzzwords to describe what is essentially “process efficiency”. It’s really funny when IT is sold as a capability to drive strategy, and in general to support or even replace highly creative activities that only humans can perform.

Which brings me to my law of the constancy of the human predicament: as more technology and know-how becomes available, we manage to somehow stay ahead of the simplicity curve so our confusion remains constant relative to progress. And that means there will always be prophets and oracles, i.e. consultants in modern day parlance, as a natural extension of our emotional self.

Everything has changed and nothing’s changed.

So if we were to eliminate all the buzzwords that the consulting and IT industries continue to produce, what would be left? I would venture to say: “problem solving common sense”. As long as there are humans, there will always be problems, and common sense will always be in short supply. Which explains why buzzwords will also always be around: to compensate for the lack of common sense, for which the demand is and will remain bigger than the supply.

Davos, innovation and the future of capitalism

23 Wednesday Jan 2013

Posted by lnedelescu in capitalism, democracy, future, innovation, society, taxonomy

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Ackoff, Capitalism, Christensen, Davos, Drucker, effectiveness, Innovation, management, Martin, Responsibility, Thought Leader

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Many of the sessions at Davos 2013 contain “innovation” in the title. Two of the top names in management and innovation are present as well: Clayton Christensen and Roger Martin. Unfortunately, the fact they speak with separate voices about the same underlying phenomena is not helping their cause, which holds more potential for true transformation of the world economy than many of the purely economic insights of the typical Davos crowd:

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/01/21/business/opinion-clayton-christensen/index.html

http://www.rogerlmartin.com/wp-content/themes/rm2009/pdfs/strategy_issue23_thinkingbydesign.pdf

Peter Drucker and Russell Ackoff have 20-30 years ago explained the fundamentals behind the phenomena observed by both Christensen and Martin: in essence effectiveness trumps efficiency. Christensen and Martin thus have a great responsibility, that of acknowledging each other so as to not fragment the legacy of Drucker and Ackoff’s schools of thought; in today’s environment the urgency is such that we can’t afford recreating the Tower of Babel experiment. But even if they and others like them (Dave Snowden, David Hurst, Fredmund Malik, etc.) were to speak with one voice, the real decision makers at Davos will have little clue as to what these two guys are talking about. That is because one can only fully absorb something one can relate to personal experience. Decision makers cannot be taught, even if they had the humility to listen (relevant Ackoff quote: “We don’t recognize that teaching is a major obstruction to learning […] Who in the classroom learns the most…. the teacher. See the classroom is upside down.”).

How bureaucracies continue to grow or the second law of “organizational” thermodynamics

20 Thursday Dec 2012

Posted by lnedelescu in capitalism, democracy, future, human capital, management, Organizational Development, problem solving, society

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Behavior, bureaucracy, management, Organizational Development, thermodynamics

Is there a reason bureaucracies seem to always expand? Is there a reason why a committee that was set up to resolve a problem often time gets of life of its own and outlives the problem? Is there an organizational equivalent to the second law of thermodynamics in physics that says that the entropy or disorder of a system always tends to grow? What are the equivalent mechanics that fuel bureaucratic expansion?

I present in this blog entry a generic bureaucratic growth scenario that is inspired by real experiences. The scenario is organized in a number of steps and most steps are conceptually reinforced by the words of a few individuals who are held in high regard by society.

(Step 1) The bureaucracy’s leadership defines a grand and worthy-sounding vision that needs to be pursued.

Because the leaders don’t have a complete and clear understanding of all the implications of the vision they propose, there is usually some degree of ambiguity associated with an otherwise worthy-sounding pursuit. A sound vision requires a deep understanding of the context. And a prerequisite to understanding in complicated domains requires clear organization of the complete knowledge in that domain, or an ontology. But there are many bureaucracies which operate without an awareness of the total knowledge they are supposed to possess and manage. And there are many leaders within those bureaucracies who do not possess the understanding required. An applicable quote from Profession John Gero is: “ontologies provide a domain with a structure for the knowledge in that domain. Domains without ontologies are constantly inventing new terms for existing knowledge and find it difficult to develop foundations on which others can build.”

Nevertheless, even with an ambiguous or incomplete vision…

(Step 2) Planning the work to achieve the vision begins.

Because the true implications of the ambiguity and incompleteness of the vision are not thought-through, there is usually a disconnect between the vision and the time and budget allotted. This increases the pressure on executing the vision, decreasing the opportunity to question the context, the validity of the vision. Because the subordinates are judged by checking off the vision or goal, they concentrate on just that. In a strive for efficiency (get the product out, meet the deadline so we can check off the box) effectiveness (i.e. context) becomes skewed. An applicable quote from Peter Drucker is “efficiency is a matter of doing things right; effectiveness is a matter of doing the right things.” But doing the “right things” takes enough up-front thinking, and it also takes pushing back on a vision or goal that doesn’t make sense.

But it’s already too late for that…

(Step 3) The initiative/project/product gets a life of its own.

This happens because it starts being tracked in the operational systems of the bureaucracy. These are however by definition not designed to be sensitive to context. That is because context takes thinking, and it cannot be easily measured with simple metrics: there is no such thing as a kilogram of context. The chance for someone noticing a fault with the initial vision diminishes at this point exponentially. That is because these context-blind operational systems have a direct impact on the employee’s performance, and they don’t measure context and validity. So arguing that the work doesn’t make sense, can only get one in trouble, since “doesn’t make sense” is not something that operational systems track.

And so, Drucker’s “doing the right things” turns decisively into “doing things right”, or else!

(Step 4): The vision cannot be wrong!

The initiative/project/product is clearly out of tune with the initial vision. The results are just not conclusive and the output isn’t useful. But it has since acquired a life of its own, and even if its ineffectiveness is obvious, no one dares to take the blame for fear of punishment. The disconnect eventually becomes apparent to the leadership, but even the executives who initiated the vision don’t have the political courage or power to declare the vision erroneous.  Doing so would mean taking the blame for X millions/billions spent in vain. And so, attempts are made to fix the initiative/project/product from within rather than scrapping it altogether, acknowledging the financial loss, and re-examining the initial premises. The same thinking and methods that created the problem are used to attempt to correct it, which is a futile exercise. Albert Einstein has a powerful insight for this type of situation: “we can’t solve problems with the same type of thinking that was used to create them”.

(Step 5): Fear and stubbornness are good companions.

Stubbornly refusing to acknowledge blame and scrap the project, the organization continues to try to do the wrong thing righter. But Russell Ackoff rightly cautions against this approach:  “most large social systems are pursuing objectives other than the ones they proclaim, and the ones they pursue are wrong. They try to do the wrong thing righter, and this makes what they do wronger. It is much better to do the right thing wrong than the wrong thing right, because when errors are corrected, it makes doing the wrong thing wronger but the right thing righter”.

(Step 6): Outside intervention!

An outside intervention is eventually necessary, and this usually takes the incarnation of a new committee. New procedures and processes are set up to prevent this “type” of problem from occurring in the future. The new procedures and processes themselves get a life of their own and have to be maintained which means new job roles or at the very least new job responsibilities are added, and the bureaucracy expands.

(Step 7 and 1) A new bold vision is defined…

And the rest is…déjà-vu!

The power of holistic thinking or how Albert Einstein’s Theory of Relativity could not have been a crowd-sourced innovation

13 Thursday Dec 2012

Posted by lnedelescu in innovation, knowledge, science, society, technology

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Crowd Sourcing, Einstein, Innovation, science, Society, Technology

I have claimed that all the hype about how the information technology revolution,  culminating with Apple and Facebook, has changed the quality of our civilization may be over-rated.

A lot of the benefits hype associated with social networks and other interconnected means of communication facilitated by information technology may be just that: hype. Networks come with volume (people, information, “likes” and so on) and they do have their benefits: speed with which the information propagates for one and the beginnings of the creation of a global village. But we should not confuse information with wisdom, intelligence and creativity; more quantity of information delivered ever faster does not necessarily mean an increase in the quality of our understanding or wisdom. I’ve used the following example to make my point to several audiences lately: “Einstein’s Theory of Relativity could not have been a crowd-sourced innovation”. And I honestly believe that is true, having provided at least one supporting argument from the management consulting industry (see my blog entry “Russell Ackoff, the Albert Einstein of Management“).

And so I have claimed, supplied limited examples, and will continue to argue over the course of coming posts that some of the world’s top thinkers are in fact aligned with a view that argues for qualitative, holistic path to the world’s progress that can be traced all the way back to roots of Western civilization in ancient Greece.

Below are three examples of insights that go against commonly accepted wisdom. These insights share a common denominator and namely that quality is more important than quantity which is equivalent to effectiveness being more important than efficiency. See also my post on this blog of the fallacy of the business performance consulting model.

In his Harvard Business Review Blog, Jeff Stibel makes the case for intelligence and creativity being a qualitative rather than quantitative, a primarily individualistic rather than group phenomenon:

http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/06/why_a_great_individual_is_bett.html

In a Q&A with Alan Hall at Forbes, Clayton Christiansen, the innovation guru, argues that our obsession with efficiency, based largely in quantitative methods and thinking, is killing innovation:

http://www.businessinsider.com/clay-christensen-our-obsession-with-efficiency-is-killing-innovation-2012-12

The same finger prints of holistic, qualitative thinking can be noticed in Roger Martin’s and Jack Welch’s motivations when arguing against the “shareholder value” concept in economics and business:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2012/08/29/is-the-hegemony-of-shareholder-value-finally-ending/

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